Few moments in Irish politics generate as much speculation as an open presidential race. With Michael D. Higgins term-limited and the election set for October 2025, bookmakers have already begun pricing potential successors — and the odds are telling a story of their own. This article breaks down the betting markets, the electoral process, and what the numbers mean for anyone watching the race.

4 related posts

Election Date: 24 October 2025 ·
Incumbent President: Michael D. Higgins (term-limited) ·
Number of Candidates (expected): TBD ·
Next Irish General Election odds (Sinn Féin): 8/13 (Betting favourite) ·
Previous election turnout (2018): 43.9%

Quick snapshot

1Confirmed facts
2What’s unclear
3Timeline signal
  • – nomination period (Wikipedia (encyclopaedia entry))
  • – election day
  • – last election (Higgins re-elected)
4What’s next
  • Expect candidate declarations in mid-2025 (OLBG (betting tips site))
  • Bookmakers will adjust odds as field clarifies

Five key facts about the 2025 presidential race, one pattern: the betting market already has a front-runner, but the official candidate list is still taking shape.

Label Value
Next presidential election 24 October 2025
Incumbent Michael D. Higgins (term-limited)
Term length 7 years
Odds favourite (general election) Sinn Fein (8/13 via Paddy Power)
Popular bookmakers BoyleSports, Paddy Power, Ladbrokes

Who is the favorite to become the next president of Ireland?

According to early betting markets, the race has a clear early leader — but it’s still very much an open contest.

Current betting market leaders (if any)

  • Catherine Connolly, TD for Galway West, is the 13/8 favourite, implying a 38.1% chance (according to OLBG (betting tips analysis)).
  • Heather Humphreys follows at 9/4 (30.8% implied probability) from the same OLBG table.
  • Sean Kelly sits at 4/1 (20.0%), Bertie Ahern at 7/1 (12.5%), and Mary Lou McDonald at 15/2 (11.8%).

Candidates likely to emerge

  • Other names in the mix include Micheál Martin (16/1) and even Conor McGregor (40/1) (OLBG (betting tips analysis)).
  • The OLBG report notes Connolly is “the only confirmed candidate so far,” suggesting the field will widen as the nomination deadline approaches.
Bottom line: Catherine Connolly currently leads the betting with 38.1% implied probability, but with only one confirmed candidate, the market remains highly speculative. Betting enthusiasts should treat these odds as early positional signals, not final predictions.

The implication: the early leader may not hold once bigger-party candidates formally enter the race.

When is the next presidential election in Ireland?

The constitution fixes the date, but the timeline leaves room for late-breaking entries.

Election date and timeline

  • The 2025 Irish presidential election will be held on (Wikipedia (encyclopaedia entry)).
  • The president serves a 7-year term (Wikipedia (office description)).

Key deadlines for nominations

  • Candidates must be nominated by at least 20 members of the Oireachtas or by four local authorities (Wikipedia (election process)).
  • The nomination period typically opens a few weeks before election day, in October 2025.
The catch

Although the date is fixed, the candidate list may remain fluid until late September 2025, meaning early odds could shift dramatically once high-profile figures declare their intent.

What this means: bettors and voters alike should watch the late-summer window for the real contest to take shape.

How do Irish presidential election odds work?

Understanding the numbers behind political betting is key to interpreting the markets. Here’s how they work in Ireland.

Understanding fractions and decimal odds

  • Fractional odds (e.g., 13/8) are standard in Irish betting. The numerator shows potential profit on the denominator’s stake.
  • Implied probability = denominator / (numerator + denominator) × 100. For 13/8, that’s 8/(13+8)=38.1% (OLBG (betting tips analysis)).
  • Decimal odds (e.g., 2.625) show total return per unit staked. 13/8 = 2.625.

How bookmakers set political odds

Three candidates, one pattern: the top three odds — Connolly, Humphreys, and Kelly — show a steep drop in implied probability from 38.1% to 20.0%, suggesting a two-horse race with a chasing pack.

Candidate Fractional Odds Implied Probability
Catherine Connolly 13/8 38.1%
Heather Humphreys 9/4 30.8%
Sean Kelly 4/1 20.0%
Bertie Ahern 7/1 12.5%
Mary Lou McDonald 15/2 11.8%
Micheál Martin 16/1 5.9%
Conor McGregor 40/1 2.4%
What to watch

If a major party like Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael fields a heavyweight candidate, expect Connolly’s odds to drift and the market to reprice within hours.

The pattern: early betting markets are thin and reactive — a single declaration can reprice the entire board.

Timeline: Key dates in the 2025 presidential race

  • – Candidates file papers (Wikipedia (encyclopaedia entry))
  • – 2025 Irish presidential election held
  • – Last Irish presidential election (Higgins re-elected)

What we know and what remains uncertain

Confirmed facts

  • Presidential election held on (Wikipedia (encyclopaedia entry))
  • Michael D. Higgins cannot run again (Wikipedia (office description))
  • Winner serves 7-year term (Wikipedia (office description))

What’s unclear

  • Exact list of candidates before nomination deadline (OLBG (betting tips site))
  • How betting odds will shift after major parties announce their picks

Quotes from the betting world

“Catherine Connolly is the 13/8 favourite to become the next President of Ireland, with bookmakers expecting her and Heather Humphreys to dominate the early market.”

– OLBG analysis, based on early betting markets (OLBG (betting tips site))

“Election, presidential, and leadership markets are offered by sites such as Betfair, Paddy Power, William Hill, and Sky Bet.”

– Political betting guide (esports-news.co.uk (betting guide))

The implication for voters and bettors alike is clear: the 2025 race is wide open, and early odds reflect market uncertainty as much as candidate strength. For anyone considering a bet, the smart move is to wait for nomination day — the field is likely to change, and so will the prices.

Additional sources

oddschecker.com

For those tracking the odds before the vote, betting markets for the 2025 race offered a clear picture of the shifting landscape.

Don't miss these

Frequently asked questions

Can Michael D. Higgins run for president again in 2025?

No. The constitution limits presidents to two terms, and Higgins was elected in 2011 and re-elected in 2018. He is term-limited (Wikipedia (office description)).

What is the difference between the presidential election and the general election in Ireland?

The presidential election chooses the head of state every 7 years, while the general election elects the Dáil (parliament) every 4-5 years. They are separate contests with different electorates and rules.

Are political bets legal in Ireland?

Yes, political betting is legal and regulated. Licensed bookmakers like Paddy Power and BoyleSports offer markets on Irish elections (esports-news.co.uk (betting guide)).

How are Irish presidential odds different from UK general election odds?

Irish presidential odds are typically offered as fractional odds (common in Ireland/UK) but the market is smaller and more volatile because the presidential race occurs only every 7 years and often draws a narrower field.

What factors affect presidential betting odds?

Odds shift with candidate announcements, polling data, media coverage, and political endorsements. A single high-profile entry can halve a favorite’s price.

Can I bet on the Dublin by-election?

Many bookmakers offer odds on by-elections as part of their broader politics markets. Check BoyleSports, Paddy Power, or Ladbrokes for current markets.

Which party is favorite for the next Irish general election?

Sinn Féin is currently the betting favorite at 8/13 (via Paddy Power) as of early 2025, but this market is separate from the presidential odds and can move independently.

Related reading